Weekly Top Economic News — January 10, 2025

Summary:

1. Trump’s tariff concerns stir conflict in silver and copper markets.
2. U.S. job advertisements hit a nine-year low.
3. Eurozone retail sales rise slightly in November.
4. Federal Reserve policymakers signal that interest rates may remain stable for now.

Trump’s Tariff Concerns Stir Conflict in Silver and Copper Markets

Silver and copper prices surged to levels higher than international benchmark prices as traders intensified bets that President Trump would impose hefty tariffs on metals. Silver futures on the COMEX exchange were traded at $0.90 per ounce above spot prices set in London on Thursday, approaching highs seen in December. Copper on the COMEX traded at $623 per ton above equivalent futures prices set on the London Metal Exchange, nearing record levels witnessed during last year’s historic short squeeze in the global copper market.

Traders have hastened to ship copper to U.S. warehouses to capitalize on rising prices since last year, with similar efforts observed as New York silver prices began climbing. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, stated, “Investors around the world started the year seeking protection against potential rising inflation, debt concerns, and Trump’s unpredictable actions.” He added, “The sudden price spike is definitely part of the story of Trump’s unpredictability.”

U.S. Job Advertisements Hit a Nine-Year Low

A report released last Thursday revealed that job advertisements by U.S. employers last year were the lowest since 2015, underscoring a slowdown in job growth during that period. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a global employment firm, stated that companies announced numerous hiring plans last year, but there was a 1.3% decrease compared to 2023. Job advertisements also fell in November.

Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said, “The slowdown in hiring reflects ongoing uncertainty in economic conditions and employers’ cautious approach toward expansion. Most employers anticipate additional uncertainty with the incoming administration, which is leading to a slower hiring pace.”

Eurozone Retail Sales Rise Slightly in November

In November 2024, compared to October 2024, the seasonally adjusted retail trade volume rose by 0.1% in the Eurozone and by 0.2% in the EU, according to Eurostat data. This indicates a modest recovery in the retail market. However, retail trade volume declined in both the Eurozone and the EU in October 2024 compared to the previous month. On an annual basis, the retail sales index for November 2024 showed a 1.2% growth in the Eurozone and 1.5% in the EU, suggesting a slow recovery after a period of volatility.

Federal Reserve Policymakers Signal that Interest Rates May Remain Stable for Now

Several U.S. Federal Reserve officials confirmed last Thursday that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged for a long period unless there is a significant slowdown in inflation. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that slowing down rate cuts is prudent due to “significant uncertainty” regarding the U.S. economic outlook.

Federal Reserve policies are ready to adapt to changing conditions, but rates will remain elevated if inflation shows no meaningful progress. The upcoming Trump administration and a Republican-controlled Congress could introduce new economic policies that may alter the economic trajectory, though it is too early to assess their impact accurately. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman also stated that she continues to lean toward cautious and gradual policy adjustments, emphasizing that persistent inflation risks warrant a slower pace for rate cuts.